For my money (figure of speech because I rarely bet) the
first week in March is the most exciting time of the year in Thoroughbred horse
racing, more so than the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby. By Derby Week
we may not know who’s going to win the big race, but we generally know who
could be great and who will never be. The “could be great” crowd of
three-year-olds is pretty small by that week and may be nonexistent after the
race.
It’s a much bigger crowd at this point, but it’s probably
going to get a lot smaller by this coming weekend so I’m spending time savoring
the possibilities. There are still some unbeaten horses of quality and a few
more once-beaten who can be forgiven for their losses. The next Secretariat or
Man o’ War could be in the group. Okay, probably not, but we don’t know until
they prove otherwise.
Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby has two of the “until they prove
otherwise” possibilities. Carpe Diem, who cost $1.6 million as a yearling, has
won two of his three starts. But the sole loss came in the $2 million Breeders’
Cup Juvenile, puncturing his reputation as a possible super horse. Still, he
closed well to be second and is, by all standards, bred to go the classic
distances.
He’ll face another horse who hasn’t yet proved he isn’t great.
Ocean Knight, who cost a mere $320,000 as a yearling, is unbeaten in two
starts. He hasn’t faced top level stakes company yet, so a major question will
be answered Saturday. He is a son of the great Curlin, the winner of $10
million, able to get the classic distances and then some, and now a great
source for stamina at stud. A lot of us would be thrilled to see Curlin become
the sire of a great horse.
Probably the most interesting horse in the great-or-not
showdown this weekend is Dortmund. He won his first two starts as a two-year in
spectacular fashion, then won two stakes races through determination as much as
speed. In his last start, Dortmund did what horses—especially young ones—never
do: he came back to win after being passed in the stretch. He didn’t show
breathtaking speed, but his level of fortitude is remarkable Dortmund remains a
candidate for greatness, at least until Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa
Anita. I love this time of year!
